Polonium

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Is Poland Too Cocky About Its Economy?

The Eastern European giant's relative success during the global economic crisis may have bred a dangerous complacency about its real fiscal prospects.

Perhaps being named European finance minister of the year has gone to Polish Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski's head. After Poland's stellar but slightly lucky economic performance in 2009, some economists say Rostowski is dangerously downplaying risks that could weigh on the country's prosperity, undermining the credibility of his government's fiscal-deficit reduction efforts and narrowing Poland's path to the eurozone.

"The deficit reduction program is very optimistic, as it's based on GDP growth of 3 to 4%," Millennium Bank (BMSAF) chief economist Grzegorz Maliszewski said. "Implementing this scenario is risky. Until 2012, everything will depend on GDP growth."

Read more
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/apr2010/gb2010048_192248.htm